Project 75 Scorpene

INS Vagsheer, the sixth and last submarine of the Scorpene class was launched on April 27, 2022, at India’s leading public sector shipyard, Mazagon Docks Ltd (MDL). It is likely to be commissioned into the Indian Navy after completing its sea trials, sometime in end 2023. The submarine is the second incarnation of Vagsheer, which means sand shark, with the first Vagsheer, a Foxtrot class submarine from the Soviet Union being decommissioned in April 1997, after three decades of service. The launch was a significant moment for India as it represented the completion of the construction phase of the Project 75 (P-75) programme which commenced with the keel-laying of the first submarine of the class, INS Kalvari, in April 2009. The submarine was commissioned into the Indian Navy by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on December 14, 2017.

The $3.5 billion Scorpene contract was signed in October 2005, as the first phase of the Indian Navy’s 30-year submarine building programme. It was a landmark moment as it marked only the second time that India had ventured into a partnership with a western nation to build submarines in India, the first one being the ill-fated 1981 contract for four German HDW Type 209 SSK submarines (also called the Shishumar class), all of which are still in service and have served the nation very well. Of the six submarines of the Scorpene class, four are already in commission and the fifth one, INS Vagir, is undergoing sea trials and should be commissioned by the end of this year. The Scorpene class submarines have reportedly settled down well. Possessing modern stealth features and advanced weapons and sensors, they are potent platforms that should serve the Indian Navy well over the next three decades.

Project 75 (India)

While this is a proud moment for MDL and the Indian Navy, and also demonstrates the indigenous ship-building skills of our shipyards, it is also a time to introspect on the progress of the 30-year submarine-building plan, approved by the Vajpayee Government in 1999, which has not really gone the way it was envisaged. This far-sighted plan envisaged the construction of 24 diesel attack submarines in India, of both eastern (Russian) and western origin, with the indigenous content increasing with each batch, until the submarines were wholly designed and built in India. The 30-year submarine-building plan was ambitious, as until then India had limited experience of building submarines, with only two HDW submarines having been assembled at MDL with very little indigenous content. However, only six of the 24 submarines have been built and four commissioned, during two decades of the plan period.

The fastest way to replace ageing conventional submarines would be to go in for at least three additional Scorpenes, with advancements in technology and design, and a higher level of indigenisation, in preparation for an indigenously designed submarine

Meanwhile, progress for the next batch, termed as Project 75(I), with Air Independent Propulsion (AIP capability), acquisition for which was commenced over a decade ago, is still at the RFP response stage under the ‘Strategic Partnership’ model. The current RFP was issued in July 2021 to short-listed Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) who were to choose between MDL and Larsen and Toubro Shipbuilding, from the public and private sector respectively. The earlier unrealistic timeline for bid submission, which was November 2021, had been extended to June 2022. It is estimated that if the process goes as per current timelines, the government will not be able to place firm orders before end 2024.

News reports also indicate that a few years ago the Indian Navy had approached the Government to amend the 30-year submarine building plan by replacing six conventional submarines with SSNs under the Atmanirbhar Bharat route. This recommendation was reportedly given in view of the changed threat levels vis-à-vis China, which has a force level of nine SSNs and has begun deploying them in the Indian Ocean commencing 2013. Having gained sufficient experience in the design and construction of strategic submarines over the past three decades, it would not be difficult to replicate it for the SSN programme through the existing programme. Once this plan is approved, it would take India into an elite club of SSN-builders and operators, which today only comprises the US, Russia, UK, China and France.

Submarine Fleet – IN vs PN vs PLAN

The construction of next two batches of conventional and nuclear submarines under the 30-year submarine-building programme takes on added urgency in the face of developments in Pakistan and China. Pakistan had signed a contract with China in 2015 to construct eight Yuan-class (Type 039-A) conventional AIP-capable submarines at an estimated cost of $5 billion – the first four in China and the last four in KSEW, Karachi. Work on these submarines is progressing expeditiously with the first boat scheduled to be delivered in end 2023. Given the speed of construction at Chinese shipyards, especially as the Yuan class is a tried and tested design; it is quite likely that the first four submarines to be built in China will be commissioned on schedule. Steel cutting ceremony for the fifth submarine, to be built at KSEW, has also been held in December 2021. Once all eight submarines are delivered, probably over the next decade, the Pakistan Navy’s sea denial capability will be greatly enhanced. AIP submarines are also called the ‘poor man’s SSN’ as it allows them to remain submerged for greater lengths of time without surfacing, which makes them more difficult to detect. The Yuan class submarines have already been deployed in the IOR and one boat also visited Karachi in 2015, where it reportedly embarked Pakistan Navy personnel for ‘experience’ sorties. Subsequent training of Pakistani crew in China will ensure quick operationalisation of these submarines.

Meanwhile, China’s own submarine (and ship) building programme is proceeding apace and as per the latest assessment given to the US Congress by the US DoD in January 2022, now comprises a force level of 56 modern conventional and nine nuclear attack submarines (not counting its six SSBNs). As mentioned earlier, China had commenced regular deployments of both its conventional and nuclear submarines to the IOR under the pretext of anti-piracy patrols. China has also been aggressively marketing its submarines across the globe and has already sold submarines to Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistan and Thailand. It also claims that Algeria, Cuba, Egypt, Libya, Myanmar, the UAE and Venezuela have also expressed interest in acquiring their submarines. Faced with China’s growing naval strength in the Indo-Pacific, the US and UK have combined forces to arm Australia with SSNs under the AUKUS trilateral security pact.

In contrast, apart from the six new Scorpene class submarines, India’s conventional submarine force levels comprise a dwindling number of SSK and Kilo class submarines, with all the older submarines scheduled to be retired progressively on reaching the end of their service life. Unless replacements are available within a decade, there is a distinct possibility that the Indian Navy’s conventional submarine force levels could dip to single digits and even fall below those with Pakistan. To enable the Indian Navy to meet its operational requirements in its vast area of operation in the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean, there is, therefore, a need to take some urgent steps to redress this situation.

Planning the Future

It is evident that the P-75(I) programme is still at the start line of the acquisition process, and it would take at least a decade before the first submarine is commissioned, after the contract is signed, which is likely by 2031, at the earliest, providing that the current acquisition process proceeds as planned. It needs to be kept in mind that in the case of the Scorpene programme, the first submarine was commissioned in 2017, almost 12 years after the contract was signed with DCNS (now Naval Group), France. Consequently, as has been suggested by some other commentators, the fastest way to replace ageing conventional submarines would be to go in for at least three additional Scorpenes, with advancements in technology and design, and a higher level of indigenisation, in preparation for an indigenously designed submarine. This would have the advantage of faster replenishment of force levels and commonality of platforms, with all its attendant benefits. This would also ensure the gainful employment of the infrastructure and expertise already available at MDL, which would otherwise be largely wasted. Even more importantly, the human resource for submarine construction, which has been built up in a painstaking manner over the past decade, needs to be gainfully utilised, before it disperses.

The exciting prospect of two lines of indigenous submarines – one nuclear and the other conventional – would truly galvanise the Indian ship-building sector and bring in huge investment into Indian SMEs and MSMEs, generating thousands of jobs over a long term period of 30-50 years. More importantly, it would galvanise our export base for big ticket defence items.

The exciting prospect of two lines of indigenous submarines – one nuclear and the other conventional – would truly galvanise the Indian ship-building sector and bring in huge investment into Indian SMEs and MSMEs, generating thousands of jobs over a long term period of 30-50 years. More importantly, it would galvanise our export base for big ticket defence items.

The exciting prospect of two lines of indigenous submarines – one nuclear and the other conventional – would truly galvanise the Indian ship-building sector and bring in huge investment into Indian SMEs and MSMEs, generating thousands of jobs over a long term period of 30-50 years. More importantly, it would galvanise our export base for big ticket defence items, much in the manner done recently by China, and earlier by France and Germany. We don’t have to look abroad for inspiration in this regard. In the late 1970s, after having built six Leander class frigates of British design, the Indian Navy decided to bite the bullet and design and build a truly Indian warship. The result was the Project 16 class of guided missile frigates, the first of which, INS Godavari, was commissioned in 1983 and served the Indian Navy with distinction over the past three decades. The lessons learnt from this project have resulted in a series on indigenous destroyers and frigates, which are the Indian Navy’s mainstay today. Indeed, the fact that we have achieved the acme of ship design was proved last year with the successful sea trials of the first indigenously designed and built aircraft carrier, the INS Vikrant, which is the most complex ship-building project undertaken thus far by India.

In a similar manner, a leap of faith in Indian submarine design and technical expertise would have long-lasting benefits. The Indian Navy’s submarine design organisation is capable of such a feat after having been the backbone of the Indian Navy’s strategic programme, and foreign consultancy can always be taken where required, for safety oversight. We also need to accept that while the first design may not be perfect, the experience gained will embolden us to be truly ‘Atmanirbhar’ in this field. It is the belief of the author that once an empowered project is created to steer this programme, under the joint stewardship of the Indian Navy and the DRDO, with private/public shipyard partnership, a truly indigenous conventional submarine could be easily built within the next decade and translated into serial production thereafter.