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The prolonged wars in Ukraine and the Middle East highlight how drones, missiles, accessible technology and unconventional tactics are reshaping warfare and challenging traditional measures of military superiority
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The Author is former Chief of Staff of a frontline Corps in the North East and a former helicopter pilot. He earlier headed the China & neighbourhood desk at the Defence Intelligence Agency. He retired in July 2020 and held the appointment of Addl DG Information Systems at Army HQ. |
Two theatres of war, one in the heart of Europe and the other engulfing the entire Middle East, give clear and distinct signals that something significant is changing in the character of warfare. The war in Ukraine involves US-led-NATO backed Ukraine pitted against great power Russia and has dragged on well into its fifth year. The other, stoked by the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel and the consequent Israeli onslaught on Gaza expanded initially into Hezbollah dominated Lebanon but has now spiralled into a regional inferno lighting up the entire Middle East after the US directly joined in support of Israel and bombarded Iran on February 28 this year.
Conventional war gaming models would suggest that Ukraine should have folded up long time back considering overwhelming adverse combat power ratios vis a vis former super power Russia. Yet while it has lost over 20 per cent of its territory to Russia and a quarter of its population have fled the country, Ukraine has retained the capacity to deliver painful blows to Russian oil and gas infra deep inside the country while also blasting warehouses and logistic centres of Russian supermarket chains.
The relationship between investment and destructive capability is changing, and the Houthis of Yemen may be providing one of its clearest demonstrations
Similar outcomes would have been predicted for Iran, to capitulate under the overwhelming air power of US-Israel combine in consort with a vastly superior US Navy menacingly lurking in the Arabian Sea with two carrier strike groups. But eight months after the American attack which was possibly premised on Iran capitulating like Venezuela with a regime change, the situation is almost the opposite. Not only the theocracy survives and continues to call the shots, Iran has effectively blasted US bases in the region while imposing a blockade of the Hormuz Strait through which 20 per cent of the global oil and gas flows. Iran backed Houthis, a part of its 'Axis of Resistance' is demonstrating exceptional capacity to cause havoc to US staunch ally Saudi Arabia and disrupt shipping through the Red Sea.
The situation is so dire that the US has reportedly been scaling back its troop presence at military bases across the Middle East in recent days due to ongoing regional threats from the Iran-backed Houthis and Iran. Meanwhile, the US State Department has directed some diplomats and their families to leave American missions in Saudi Arabia and is planning to pull family members out of several other diplomatic posts across the region, a clear sign of severe distress and miscalculation.
While the Ukraine situation can be explained by the fact that it's a proxy war between US-led NATO and Russia and hence the war lingers on with active support in intelligence sharing, supply of arms, munitions and air defence assets and military advisors on ground assisting Ukraine military in targeting Russian assets deep inside its territory, the Middle East situation gives a very different signal. Iran's capacity to wage a prolonged drones-missiles onslaught overwhelming the costly American-Israeli air defences was anticipated. But a relatively small non-state actor like Houthis, possessing neither a sophisticated industrial base nor conventional military superiority, has acquired the ability to threaten international shipping, strike economic infrastructure and impose disproportionate costs upon powerful adversaries is very very consequential for military thinkers world over to ponder.
Commercial drones, increasingly accessible engineering software, satellite imagery and artificial intelligence can provide smaller organisations with capabilities previously associated with established military forces
Events and outcomes in both these theatres of war need close observation and analysis to draw appropriate and correct lessons by the military planners. But the escalation in the Red Sea and Saudi Arabia should be of special concern to India for reasons extending well beyond energy prices and maritime commerce. Traditional military superiority rests upon trained manpower, sophisticated weapons, industrial capacity, logistics and technological innovation. These remain indispensable, but the relationship between investment and destructive capability is changing, and the Houthis of Yemen may be providing one of its clearest demonstrations. Russia provides satellite intelligence, Iran operational integration and Houthis (boots on the ground), do the tactical reporting. The battlefield picture as well as the kinetics, all integrated by spatially separated players leveraging their strength towards a common goal, victory.
Commercial drones, increasingly accessible engineering software, satellite imagery and artificial intelligence can provide smaller organisations with capabilities previously associated with established military forces. AI may assist in analysing information, developing software, interpreting imagery and accelerating technical experimentation. It does not eliminate the difficulties of producing reliable weapons, but it can lower some barriers to acquiring expertise.
Another battleground is emerging swiftly in the horizon, not a classical war but something that is increasingly being recognised to be worse. The riots in France which has quickly spread further to Brussels, Italy, Spain and Albania with devastating implications on stability of these countries going forward compels military thinkers to agonise over whether internal security is becoming a bigger challenge than external threat. Should that be the dominant conclusion after thorough study, debate and analysis, the implications are far reaching on issues of security encompassing force structuring and command and control architectures that were hitherto considered well-crafted and capable to defend our sovereignty and territorial integrity.
France's riots have become part of a wider international narrative of rebellion, a kind of "Chaos Inc.", amplified by a transnational network of communist and socialist organisations stretching from Europe to Asia, Australia, Africa and South America and North America. A Fox News Digital investigation has identified 54 organisations and movements in France's October student protests and their wider network of supporters and international amplifiers, including communist parties, revolutionary socialist groups, labour unions, environmental activists, Muslim student advocates, Palestinian-solidarity organisations and international media outlets.
Of the 54 organisations identified in the October protest ecosystem, 16 or only about one in three are student or youth organisations, including communist youth groups and a Muslim student association. The remaining 38 include adult-led communist groups, labour unions, political parties, revolutionary-left organisations, advocacy groups and international propaganda outlets. From the outset, far-left socialist and communist organisations helped organise and amplify France's student revolt, using grievances over school conditions as a pretext to mobilise a broader political struggle against capitalism, government austerity, policing and military spending. These outfits are galvanising students and youth for a coordinated strike across 12 countries in Europe under the slogan "Fight for Our Future, Not Their Wars!". There is a broader plan for expansion of this chaos to the US and India.
So, while traditional military thinkers will be focused on the war in Ukraine and the Iran war to study their nuances and chart a roadmap to enhance operational readiness taking into account new facets of intelligence gathering, communications technologies (role of Starlinks in Ukraine for example), advancements in drones, missiles and autonomous weapon systems, and new frontiers of cyber warfare (power blackouts and manipulating temperature settings thereby blowing up of food refrigeration systems in supermarket triggering shortages) , the bigger emanating threat appears to be the conglomerations of NGOs, advocacy groups and social media warriors that are coordinating with inimical state forces to strike from within.
The longevity and course of the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, debunks the oft-quoted dictum repeated ad nauseam that future wars will be short, swift and devastating
The longevity and course of the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, debunks the oft-quoted dictum repeated ad nauseam that future wars will be short, swift and devastating. Some characteristics of old ways warfighting have remained in place, like the kinetics of air warfare and importance of boots on the ground backed by sound logistics. But new attributes have inserted themselves that have obliterated frontlines and made combat power calculus which hitherto guided the construct of war machinery of great powers suddenly looking insufficient and inadequate, if not somewhat primitive.
Traditional structures retain the role, capacity and primacy in war-fighting but constant innovation responding to events and outcomes in the battlespace is the key to victory. Op Sindoor is a fitting example in this emerging cauldron.
