The Author is Former Director General of Information Systems and A Special Forces Veteran, Indian Army

In response to US-NATO bid to violate the redlines of Moscow by authorising Ukraine to fire US-supplied ATACMS and UK-supplied Storm Shadow long-range missiles deep inside Russia, Russia fired a hypersonic ballistic missile at Dnipro (Ukraine) on November 21, 2024. US President Joe Biden sanctioned this deliberate provocation to derail President-elect Donald Trump assuming presidency, as explained by Colonel MacGregor who also said there is no evidence of North Korean troops in Russia.

In retaliation against NATO and US authorisation for Ukraine to use long-range missiles inside Russian territory, Moscow launched its hypersonic Oreshnik IRBM, a cutting-edge missile traveling at Mach 10, as a strategic warning to the West.

STORM SHADOW

The hypersonic ballistic missile fired by Russia was initially assumed by the US to be the RS-26 Rubezh ICBM that carried six independent warheads with each deploying several submunitions; the range of which can exceed 5,000 km when armed with a single warhead. According to Ukrainian authorities, the missile struck an unnamed industrial enterprise. However, it later emerged that this was the experimental 'Oreshnik' IRBM, which travels at a speed of Mach 10 and was developed by Russia in a short time under directions of President Vladimir Putin.

In his television address, Putin said that the IRBM's deployment "was a response to US plans to produce and deploy intermediate and short-range missiles", and that Russia would "respond decisively and symmetrically" in the event of an escalation. Russia could have easily targeted Kiev with this IRBM, against which there is no defence, but chose to demonstrate this as a geopolitical message to the West. Should Biden decide on more escalation, a global war may happen as warned by Putin. Russia has begun serial production of the Oreshnik' IRBM but Moscow has enough hypersonic weapon systems in its arsenal including the nuclear-capable 'Avangard' HGV which can attain speeds exceeding Mach 20. New versions of the Zircon are said to have the speed of Mach 10 and a range of 500 to 1000 km.

The heartening news of Donald Trump holding peace talks at Mar-a-Lago for ceasefire on Ukraine, in consultation with NATO and Ukraine, is reportedly nearing a breakthrough.

At the Zhuhai Airshow, China showcased its GDF-600 hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV), capable of deploying payloads mid-flight, including drones and electronic warfare assets, underlining its dominance in hypersonic and space technologies.

At the 15th edition of the Zhuhai Airshow (November 12-17, 2024), China showcased its advances in military technology; a deluge of aircraft, drones, munitions, and systems, including displays of hardware in service with China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) and PLA Air Force (PLAAF) or soon to enter service. Aside from a flying demonstration of the Z-20J helicopter, the airshow included the debut of China's latest J-35A stealth fighter, J-15T carrier-based fighter aircraft and the J-15D carrier-based electronic warfare aircraft.

China has described the J-35A as primarily an air superiority fighter with multirole strike capabilities, compared to the J-20/A, which is more oriented to the air superiority role. According to the US Air Force Chief of Staff General David Allvin, China has copied the US F-35 to produce the J-35A, which is hardly surprising; stealing technology, military or civil being routine for Beijing. The J-35A is a 5th generation stealth fighter aircraft which was planned to enter service coinciding with PLAAF's 75th anniversary in November this year. Speculation is that the J-35A will be capable of super cruise when powered by WS-19 series of engines. Aside from displaying the Z-20F anti-submarine warfare (ASW) helicopter, the airshow included the Z-20J (naval utility variant of the Z-20F), J-20S (twin-seater variant of J-20) and the Su-57 stealth fighter (T-50-4 and T-50-7 prototypes).

China also unveiled its new GDF-600 hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) that can reach speeds up to Mach 7, with range of 200-600 km and can carry various submunitions, including supersonic missiles, drones and loitering munitions. It can release these payloads mid-flight which enhances its operational versatility, allowing it to conduct kinetic strikes, electronic warfare (EW) and reconnaissance across multiple targets. Integrating EW weapons into the HGV's payload could disrupt enemy communications and radar, The mid-flight deployment of EW assets would also enhance the HGV's effectiveness in neutralizing tactical targets. It could carry non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse (NNEMP) weapons, or radio-frequency weapons for EW missions.

Notably, General Stephen Whiting, Head of US Space Command had said a few months back that China is highly advanced in space technology, his concern being that China's Space Network will prevent terrestrial armies and navies from entering the Indo-Pacific region in the future. In addition, both Russia and China have demonstrated (including at Dnipro and Zhuhai) that they are more advanced in hypersonic weapon systems than US-NATO at this point of time although the latter are making every effort to catch up. China is also well advanced in laser technology. China's laser technology based anti-missile shields deployed in Iran came as a surprise to the US and Israel. China already has 230 times the ship building capacity of the US and Beijing is investing in nuclear-powered aircraft carriers. Nuclear weapons are primarily meant for deterrence but considering the numerical equations, the US is hardly in a position to take on Russia directly, leave aside Russian and China combined.

America has weaponised sanctions since decades. However, US-Western sanctions have proved ineffective against Russia and the same will happen in the case of China. Despite all the noise about the failing Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) of China, the BRI still has some 150 partner countries and 30 international organisations representing 75 per cent of the global population.

With NATO supplying Ukraine with advanced long-range missiles, tensions between the West and Russia have escalated, increasing the likelihood of the Ukraine conflict evolving into a global war.

China has invested heavily in US Treasury Bonds and western plans to decouple from China are unlikely to progress much since China is the industrial powerhouse of the world and will continue to remain so in the foreseeable future. There is little chance of China's economic and military rise slowing down. Conversely, the present US Administration has rendered the US economy in shambles and the top priority of President-elect Donald Trump is to get the economy back on track. Europe and the UK are already in recession. It will be, therefore, naïve for the US-led West to continue with the obsession of war mongering.

Finally, extreme danger of the war in Ukraine erupting into a global war exists till Trump's efforts of ceasefire materialise. As of now, France has also authorised Ukraine to fire its long-range Scalp missiles inside Russia, which means NATO is at war with Russia since the American ATACMS, British Storm Shadow and French Scalp missiles all rely on NATO navigational data and related technologies to deploy them.