Two years since the war began in Ukraine, it appears to be one of greatest strategic mistakes made in world history. The western media is so worked up by the news of the death of anti-Kremlin campaigner Navalny in a remote Siberian penitentiary that they simply ignore the half a million Ukrainians dead since the war began on 24 February 2022. Who is responsible for these half a million deaths and maybe over 12 million Ukrainian refugees and internally displaced?

Two years since the war began in Ukraine, it appears to be one of the greatest strategic mistakes made in world history

Understanding the Human Toll

Ukraine occupied a vantage location between Russian and the rest of Europe. At one point, Russia sent more than 80 percent of its gas across Ukraine to European countries, paying a hefty transit fee. Then the US engineered Maidan Movement overthrew the pro-Russian elected government in 2014. Since then, the pro-western Ukraine regimes desperately wanted to or were tricked into seeking membership of NATO. To bypass Ukraine, Russia built Nord Stream undersea pipelines as a joint venture with Germany whose industrial power was built on and sustained by cheap and reliable Russian energy. But gas never flowed through Nord Stream II. It was sabotage on 26 September 2022, six months into the Ukraine war.

Ukraine occupied a vantage location between Russian and the rest of Europe. At one point, Russia sent more than 80 per cent of its gas across Ukraine to European countries, paying a hefty transit fee

Ukraine today is a country in ruins; devastated, atomised and crumbling, its cities mangled masses of concrete and rubble. Yet President Zelensky fights on regardless. Recently he sacked his saner and sensible commander-in-chief, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi who had dared to utter the bitter truth, that the summer offensive of last year had hit a 'stalemate'.

Lies of 'we're winning' are repeated ad nauseam, no mater whatever is the ground situation. Approximately 18% of Ukrainian territory is effectively under Russian occupation and the four oblasts integrated. Remember how the US was 'winning' all that while in Afghanistan and 'democracy was on the march' till the humiliating withdrawal in August 2021.

Assessing the Economic Strain and Global Realignment

Repeated pleadings by Putin about no further eastward expansion of NATO were derisively ignored. The horror of the Second World War cost the Russian people an estimated 25 to 35 million lives. Then the threat to Russia had emanated from the heart of Europe, Nazi- Germany. Since the bombing of Serbia, America and NATO's participation in wars and the wilful wreckage of other countries such as Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria have not gone unnoticed by the Russian leadership. Now the US was pushing NATO to its borders.

Between 2014 and 2022, the Donbas region witnessed thousands of killings by neo-Nazi mercenaries backed by the US installed Ukrainian state. At least two million people were forced to flee their homes. Russia has labelled this war as security operations with its own justifications, right or wrong. In a way, this is the completion of ten years into the Ukraine war, raging since February 2014.

How are the Ukrainian people doing? At independence in 1991, Ukraine had about 52 million people. According to latest estimates, the population in areas controlled by Kyiv could already be as low as 28 million, down from 41 million before the invasion. The country's fertility rate, is believed to have fallen to 0.7 from 0.9 since war broke out, way below the replacement rate of 2.1. While farms and factories have lost workers to the armed forces, labour shortages are especially acute in industries requiring higher levels of education and training because educated young women left the country since the war started. There is justifiable fear that once wartime restrictions on men leaving the country were lifted many would join families abroad.

Since February 2022, Ukraine has received nearly $350 billion in aid, including $77 billion from the United States

Let's grasp the refugee situation. Three million Ukrainians, mainly women and children, fled Ukraine in just first three weeks of war. That is a stark contrast to 2015, when 1.3 million migrants from the Middle East and North Africa escaped to Europe after years of war and terror, seeking asylum because they feared persecution. The impact of the 2015 refugee influx and continuing arrivals by boats across the Mediterranean has already overwhelmed the EU economies so much that they are forced to adopt tough anti-immigration measures. Some measure like UK's plans to plane refugees washing up its shores by boats to Rwanda or Italy's agreement to similarly bus them to Albania have raised humanitarian concerns. Many pro-war European governments have been overthrown in recent elections, giving rise to the far-right. Dutch leader Geert Wilders is the latest.

Since February 2022, Ukraine has received nearly $350 billion in aid, including $77 billion from the United States. To put this amount in perspective, in FY 2023, the IMF approved a total of just $5.7 billion in new concessional lending commitments to low-income countries. That says much about global priorities.

The Lopsided Narrative and Unintended Consequences

The narrative about the war is hugely lopsided. The US led west has deployed every imaginable form of propaganda, information and disinformation aimed at domestic and international audiences to paint Russia as the aggressor and Putin as another Hitler. The Russian side of the story is blanked out, cancel culture. The recent interview of Putin by American TV anchor Tucker Carlson posted on 'X' has perhaps broken the spell and caused ripples in the US establishment.

The US led west has deployed every imaginable form of propaganda, information and disinformation aimed at domestic and international audiences to paint Russia as the aggressor and Putin as another Hitler

The US led west has heaped unparalleled and sweeping sanctions on Russia, freezing its forex assets worth over $300 billion parked in various western banks, combined with strategy to wean Europe away from Russian energy, oil and gas. It expected Russia to crumble, heavily dependent as it was on energy exports. The blitzkrieg of sanctions, some 19,000 as per the last count, has obviously not worked. The Russian GDP grew 3.6% last year while Japan and the UK have officially entered recession.

Navigating the Political Landscape, Diplomatic Struggle and Popular Discontent

Europe has literally burnt its bridges to its giant resource-rich neighbour Russia, having blown the Nord Stream undersea gas pipeline that had kept its homes warm and factories humming. Eurozone is battling recession and refugees while the US is the biggest beneficiary, selling LNG to Europe at far higher than the pre-war prices and billions in arms sales to NATO member countries. Finland and Sweden are the latest catch.

An unintended outcome of the Ukraine war is the gradual de-dollarisation of the global economy. China and Brazil have agreed to a new trade deal to conduct their massive $150 billion annual trade in their own currencies. Some 40 odd countries have expressed an interest to join the BRICS in its attempt to usher in a gold backed BRICS currency. All this was unthinkable two years back.

The west was hoping for a regime change. Russians were expected to hit the streets on rising prices and debilitating shortages and throw out Putin. Instead, farmers are holding protests across Europe, clogging the streets with their tractors, blocking ports and pelting the European Parliament with eggs. So are the worker unions including the NHS staff in UK. President Putin just took a test flight in a Tu-160M strategic bomber that forms part of its nuclear arsenal while President Biden continues to clumsily trip and stumble, climbing the steps of Air Force One.

Global Chessboard and Power Dynamics

To add to Zelensky's woes, much of America's attention as well as global media coverage is now directed towards the Gaza war. The Middle East is critical to America's hegemonistic Petro-dollar empire. The Gaza conflagration has diverted most military aid, arms, ammunition and other critical hardware, away from the Ukraine front.

There is a split down the middle in America on the Ukraine war effort. Even the EU is witnessing serious rumblings among its populace. Should their governments fight looming recessions and the unrelenting refugee influx or continue to divert resources, another tranche of 50 billion Euros as per the latest voting, for a lost cause? In the interregnum, the Ukrainian leadership wants to fight on till the last man standing even as Avdiivka falls to the Russians.